The Next SeaSPARQ OL/DL Conversion
Over the last few years, the Seattle Seahawks have a trend of selecting an ultra athletic defensive lineman and converting him to the offensive line. While the success of that endeavor is up to debate, they were able to develop a startable guard in J.R. Sweezy from just a 7th Round investment. The second draft pick attempt, Kristjan Sokoli, is still largely unknown. Seattle has even brought in several free agent conversions, Lemuel Jeanpierre and Drew Nowak most notably. But in a league desperate for offensive lineman (as refrerenced by Sweezy's big contract), it wouldn't surprise me if other teams attempt to implement this strategy too. Since SPARQ obviously is such a huge part of this conversion, I set out to see if there were any players that could fit the mold in the 2016 NFL Draft Class using my Slaytics data.
For my testing group, I decided on four of the most athletic defensive lineman in this class, and Joel Heath, who is rumored to possibly be converting to offensive line. The other prospects that fit the bill were Justin Zimmer, Connor Wujciak, and Dean Lowry. I started by just looking at SPARQ score. To avoid confusion, all of these are OL percentiles, not the DL ones you can find on my results page.
As you can see, Joel Heath really hurts his chances right off the bat. It takes a ton of work to convert a player to a new position, and it doesn't make sense for any team to do that if that players upside isn't elite. I would say "elite upside" is over the 95th percentile in SPARQ and a serviceable tFREAK to go with it. The range on this graph is really high, to showcase that. This was what I was looking at when I went on my Twitter rant about Justin Zimmer. But as I got more info (particluarly Zimmer's arm length), and looked deeper, I noticed something interesting.
And this is where I started to stratch my head. The SPARQ trend is a lot easier to pick up on, since it is such a high percentile. tFREAK on the other hand, seems to vary. Both Sokoli and Sweezy have above average tFREAK's, but the sample size is just too small to know if that is required. I needed answers, so I dug in to every Seahawk OL draft pick.
So it appears the Seahawks usually don't draft lineman with a tFREAK below the 20th percentile. Which makes sense, given a tFREAK below that means a prospect is likely a center-only at the next level, and Seattle hasn't drafted a center in this regime. This could also be why Seattle passed on Mitch Morse and Shaq Mason, athletic players with great SPARQ scores but tFREAKs below the 20th percentile. Seattle values versatility and investing in small centers-only may not be something they get that excited about. Does this mean they won't be interested in Justin Zimmer?
While the SLA graph doesn't provide much more insight (other than that Dean Lowry should likely not be converted), it does provide us with a pretty good mix of what we have talked about.
So taking out Dean Lowry (who is talented enough on defense to be picked there anyway), we are left with Wujciak, Zimmer, and Heath.
Connor Wujciak is the only defensive line prospect that checks every box, but he doesn't do it with a bang like Sokoli, who is already on the roster. His defensive tape doesn't warrant a draftable grade, so an interested team could likely get him very late. If I were attempting to duplicate Seattle, he would be the guy to start with.
Justin Zimmer on the other hand, has a more exciting SPARQ score, but doesn't have the tFREAK to be anything more than a center-only at the next level. Admittedly, his SPARQ score blinded me at first (that and not having his arm length). The problem with converting a player to center is they have way more on their plate from a mental standpoint than say a guard does. It's already a huge transition, and adding that into the mix would make it that much tougher. Nothing would surprise me with Seattle, and they could try it, but they don't have a track record of drafting centers-only. Seattle is said to have interest in Zimmer and even sent a scout to watch him play against Grand Valley State this year, but his defensive play may be what Seattle is interested in.
Joel Heath has helped himself by participating in OL drills and calling attention to a possible conversion, but I don't think his SPARQ is high enough for Seattle to be really interested.
I could see another team attempting to replicate Seattle's system (without fully understanding it) drafting Heath in the late rounds though. But Heath's athletic upside isn't exciting enough to warrant the work it would take to convert him.
